Grain price dynamics, $/tonne
Export prices for grain, $/tonne*
 |
May 1
|
April 24
|
w-o-w
|
| Ukraine | |
|
|
| Milling wheat grade 2, FOB |
226 – 231
|
226 – 231
|
=
|
| Milling wheat grade 3, FOB |
223 – 230
|
224 – 229
|
=
|
| Feed wheat, FOB |
216 – 225
|
219 – 225
|
-1.5
|
| Feed barley, FOB |
175 – 180
|
175 – 180
|
=
|
| Feed corn, FOB |
165 – 173
|
170 – 175
|
-3.5
|
| Russia | |
|
|
| Milling wheat pro 12.5%, FOB Black Sea ports |
227 – 231
|
227 – 235
|
-2
|
| Milling wheat pro 12.5%, FOB Azov Sea ports |
208 – 214
|
213 – 216
|
-3.5
|
| Milling wheat pro 11.5%, FOB Black Sea ports |
220 – 228
|
225 – 231
|
-4
|
| Milling wheat pro 11.5%, FOB Azov Sea ports |
205 – 212
|
211 – 215
|
-4.5
|
| Feed wheat, FOB Black Sea ports |
214
|
220
|
-6
|
| Feed barley, FOB Black Sea ports |
180 – 182
|
175 – 180
|
+3.5
|
| Feed corn, FOB Azov Sea ports |
156 – 159
|
158 – 161
|
-2
|
| Kazakhstan | |
|
|
| Wheat grade 3, DAP Saryagash |
255 – 260
|
245 – 250
|
+10
|
| Wheat grade 4, DAP Saryagash |
245 – 250
|
235 – 240
|
+10
|
| Feed barley, FOB Aktau port |
178 – 181
|
180 – 185
|
-3
|
| Europe | |
|
|
| Milling wheat 76/220/11, FOB Rouen |
218 – 222
|
228 – 230
|
-9
|
| Milling wheat, FOB Germany |
223 – 228
|
231 – 233
|
-6.5
|
| Milling wheat, FOB Constanta |
220 – 225
|
225 – 230
|
-5
|
| Feed barley, FOB Hamburg / Rostock |
175 – 184
|
181 – 188
|
-5
|
| Feed barley, FOB Rouen / La Pallice |
184 – 185
|
180 – 181
|
+4
|
| USA | |
|
|
| Milling wheat HRW (FOB US Gulf) |
226 – 236
|
235 – 240
|
-6.5
|
| Milling wheat SRW (FOB US Gulf) |
225 – 229
|
234 – 238
|
-9
|
| Feed corn (FOB US Gulf) |
137 – 146
|
149 – 152
|
-9
|
| South America | |
|
|
| Milling wheat pro 12%, FOB UpRiver |
238 – 244
|
244 – 245
|
-3.5
|
| Milling wheat pro 11.5%, FOB UpRiver |
230 – 235
|
230 – 237
|
-1
|
| Feed corn, FOB UpRiver |
140 – 149
|
146 – 152
|
-4.5
|
| Feed corn, FOB Paranagua |
147 – 154
|
–
|
–
|
| Australia | |
|
|
| Milling wheat, FOB Albany |
266 – 274
|
282 – 283
|
-12.5
|
| Milling wheat, FOB Kwinana |
268 – 278
|
285 – 286
|
-12.5
|
| Milling wheat, FOB Port Lincoln |
265 – 275
|
286 – 291
|
-18.5
|
| Feed barley, FOB Albany |
204 – 211
|
208 – 210
|
-1.5
|
| Feed barley, FOB Kwinana |
204 – 211
|
208 – 211
|
-2
|
| Feed barley, FOB Port Lincoln |
206 – 213
|
210 – 211
|
-1
|
* – offer price
Export prices for oilseeds, $/tonne*
|
May 1
|
April 24
|
w-o-w
|
| USA | |
|
|
| Soybeans, FOB US Gulf |
328 – 338
|
331 – 335
|
=
|
| South America | |
|
|
| Soybeans, FOB UpRiver |
318 – 328
|
322 – 324
|
=
|
| Soybeans, FOB Paranagua |
325 – 334
|
327 – 330
|
+1
|
* – offer price
Export prices for Ukrainian grain have stabilized after April 27. Some crops have even become cheaper. Wheat grade 2 is still offered at $226-231/t FOB. Wheat grade 3 is quoted at $223-230/t FOB. Prices for feed wheat have dropped by $1.5/t to $216-225/t FOB. Barley is still quoted at $175-180/t FOB, while quotes for corn have decreased to $165-173/t FOB ($3.5/t down). As forecasted by players, no export restrictions on Ukrainian corn are expected, as the country has sufficiently large stocks of this grain. At the same time, importers’ demand is weak given competition with US suppliers (though Iran and China are still showing interest), which puts pressure on prices. The pace of sales is even lower in the segments for wheat and barley; relevant deals are extremely rare.
The Russian grain market has stalled as export quotas for wheat, barley and corn were fully covered on Monday, April 27. Moreover, this resulted is halted shipments of grain already delivered to ports and even loaded onto vessels. Traders did not have time to draw up customs declarations, and the implementation of already concluded contracts can be disrupted. However, some players doubt that large trading companies could take significant risks and start loading without necessary documents. Indicative export quotes for almost all crops have fallen noticeably. So, 12.5% protein wheat is now quoted at $227-231/t FOB Black Sea ($2/t down) and $208-214/t FOB Azov Sea ($3.5/t down), while 11.5% protein grain is estimated at $220-228/t FOB ($4/t down) and $205-212/t FOB ($4.5/t down), respectively. Quotes for feed wheat have fallen to $214/t FOB Black Sea ($6/t down), while barley prices have risen to $180-182/t FOB ($3.5/t up). Corn now costs $156-159/t FOB ($2/t down).
In Kazakhstan, export quotes for wheat have grown by $10/t to $255-260/t DAP Saryagash (grade 3) and $245-250/t DAP Saryagash (grade 4) amid decreased May quotas allocated for these grains. Recall that April quotas amounted to 230,000 t, while May volume is only 200,000 t (120,600 t of grade 3 wheat and 79,400 t of grade 4 grain). Meanwhile, barley prices have dropped by $3/t to $178-181/t FOB Aktau amid lower demand from Iran.
Quotes for EU grain have also been mainly sliding down amid modest importers’ demand. Deals are signed infrequently and mainly within international tenders. Optimistic forecasts for new grain harvest are also putting pressure on prices. This week, wheat quotes have dropped to $218-222/t FOB Rouen ($9/t down), $223-228/t FOB German ports ($6.5/t down) and $220-225/t FOB Constanta ($5/t down). French barley prices have decreased to $175-184/t FOB Rouen/La Pallice ($5/t down), while quotes for German cargoes have risen to $184-185/t FOB Hamburg/Rostock ($4/t up).
During the period started July 1 and ended April 26, the EU countries exported almost 28 million t of wheat (vs. 17.2 million t in the same period of the previous season), 6.1 million t of barley (3.8 million t) and 4.3 million t of corn (2 million t). During the same period, imports of corn amounted to 17.1 million t (20.1 million t). Weekly exports (during April 20-26) of wheat barely exceeded 427,000 t (including 160,000 t from France, 98,700 t from Poland, 52,500 t from Lithuania and 48,400 t from Latvia), while sales of barley reached 40,300 t (33,000 t from Finland and 6,500 t from France); corn exports amounted to only 8,600 t (including 4,600 t from Romania).
Wheat prices have dropped in the USA despite worsening crop condition caused by frost and drought. So, quotes for HRW wheat have fallen by $6.5/t to $226-236/t FOB, while prices for SRW grain have declined by $9/t to $225-229/t FOB. High pace of corn planting puts pressure on relevant quotes ($9/t down to $137-146/t FOB Gulf of Mexico). Planting of this grain is 27% complete, which is a significantly higher level than last year (12%), as well as than the five-year average (20%). Demand for US soybeans is strengthening; relevant quotes are voiced at $328-338/t FOB Gulf of Mexico. This week, Mexico has bought more than 108,000 t of soybeans, while Chinese state importers have purchased at least 300,000 t of soybeans with shipments in August and September. Soybean planting has progressed from 2% to 8% (vs. 2% last year and a five-year average of 4%).
In April 17-23, the US traders sold 548,600 t of wheat (vs. 245,200 t in the previous week), 1 million t of soybeans (345,200 t) and 1.4 million t of corn (810,100 t). Taiwan and the Philippines purchased large volumes of wheat (150,000 t and 110,200 t, respectively). Mexico became the main importer of corn (544,700 t). China again took a leading position on the soybean market (618,100 t). At the same time, however, consumers cancelled previously purchased 81,200 t of wheat and 86,800 t of corn.
Quotes for Brazilian soybeans have inched up by $1/t to $325-334/t FOB Paranagua amid strong demand and growing supplies. The average supply pace is 826,000 t of soybeans per day, which confirms the expectations of record monthly exports. These products are manly shipped to China, though this importer has recently stepped up soybean purchases from the main competitor, the USA. Soybean harvesting is almost complete. Export prices for Brazilian corn with July shipments are voiced at $147-154/t FOB Paranagua. The pace of trade is not decreasing, while South Korea and Taiwan remain the main buyers.
Argentine farmers have suspended harvesting of soybeans ($318-328/t FOB Upriver) and corn ($4.5/t down to $140-149/t FOB Upriver) in the central region of the country due to heavy rains. Sunny weather during the month allowed to advance soybean harvesting to 68.2%, that of corn to 34% (condition of soybean crops worsened, though). At the same time, current weather conditions will have a positive impact on wheat planting for MY 2020-21 (scheduled to start in May); as a result, corresponding quotes have declined by $3.5/t to $238-244/t FOB Upriver (12% protein content) and by $1/t to $230-235/t FOB Upriver (11.5% protein). Note also that low water level in the Parana River is still a concern for market players, as it slows down supplies and pushes delivery costs up.
Prices for Australian wheat and barley have fallen sharply this week, reflecting decreased demand, as well as optimistic prospects for production of these crops. Thus, quotes for APW1 wheat have dropped by $12.5/t to $266-274/t FOB Albany and $268-278/t FOB Kwinana, while in the south of the country APW grain is offered at $265-275/t FOB Port Lincoln ($18.5/t down). Barley is quoted at $204-211/t FOB Albany/Kwinana ($1.5/t down and $2/t down, respectively) and at $206-213/t FOB Port Lincoln ($1/t down). Export volumes continue to decline. Producers sold out almost all stocks and start selling volumes from upcoming harvest.