Grain price dynamics, $/tonne

Export prices for grain, $/tonne*

	May 1	April 24	w-o-w
Ukraine
Milling wheat grade 2, FOB	226 – 231	226 – 231	=
Milling wheat grade 3, FOB	223 – 230	224 – 229	=
Feed wheat, FOB	216 – 225	219 – 225	-1.5
Feed barley, FOB	175 – 180	175 – 180	=
Feed corn, FOB	165 – 173	170 – 175	-3.5
Russia
Milling wheat pro 12.5%, FOB Black Sea ports	227 – 231	227 – 235	-2
Milling wheat pro 12.5%, FOB Azov Sea ports	208 – 214	213 – 216	-3.5
Milling wheat pro 11.5%, FOB Black Sea ports	220 – 228	225 – 231	-4
Milling wheat pro 11.5%, FOB Azov Sea ports	205 – 212	211 – 215	-4.5
Feed wheat, FOB Black Sea ports	214	220	-6
Feed barley, FOB Black Sea ports	180 – 182	175 – 180	+3.5
Feed corn, FOB Azov Sea ports	156 – 159	158 – 161	-2
Kazakhstan
Wheat grade 3, DAP Saryagash	255 – 260	245 – 250	+10
Wheat grade 4, DAP Saryagash	245 – 250	235 – 240	+10
Feed barley, FOB Aktau port	178 – 181	180 – 185	-3
Europe
Milling wheat 76/220/11, FOB Rouen	218 – 222	228 – 230	-9
Milling wheat, FOB Germany	223 – 228	231 – 233	-6.5
Milling wheat, FOB Constanta	220 – 225	225 – 230	-5
Feed barley, FOB Hamburg / Rostock	175 – 184	181 – 188	-5
Feed barley, FOB Rouen / La Pallice	184 – 185	180 – 181	+4
USA
Milling wheat HRW (FOB US Gulf)	226 – 236	235 – 240	-6.5
Milling wheat SRW (FOB US Gulf)	225 – 229	234 – 238	-9
Feed corn (FOB US Gulf)	137 – 146	149 – 152	-9
South America
Milling wheat pro 12%, FOB UpRiver	238 – 244	244 – 245	-3.5
Milling wheat pro 11.5%, FOB UpRiver	230 – 235	230 – 237	-1
Feed corn, FOB UpRiver	140 – 149	146 – 152	-4.5
Feed corn, FOB Paranagua	147 – 154	–	–
Australia
Milling wheat, FOB Albany	266 – 274	282 – 283	-12.5
Milling wheat, FOB Kwinana	268 – 278	285 – 286	-12.5
Milling wheat, FOB Port Lincoln	265 – 275	286 – 291	-18.5
Feed barley, FOB Albany	204 – 211	208 – 210	-1.5
Feed barley, FOB Kwinana	204 – 211	208 – 211	-2
Feed barley, FOB Port Lincoln	206 – 213	210 – 211	-1

* – offer price

Export prices for oilseeds, $/tonne*

	May 1	April 24	w-o-w
USA
Soybeans, FOB US Gulf	328 – 338	331 – 335	=
South America
Soybeans, FOB UpRiver	318 – 328	322 – 324	=
Soybeans, FOB Paranagua	325 – 334	327 – 330	+1

* – offer price

Export prices for Ukrainian grain have stabilized after April 27. Some crops have even become cheaper. Wheat grade 2 is still offered at $226-231/t FOB. Wheat grade 3 is quoted at $223-230/t FOB. Prices for feed wheat have dropped by $1.5/t to $216-225/t FOB. Barley is still quoted at $175-180/t FOB, while quotes for corn have decreased to $165-173/t FOB ($3.5/t down). As forecasted by players, no export restrictions on Ukrainian corn are expected, as the country has sufficiently large stocks of this grain. At the same time, importers’ demand is weak given competition with US suppliers (though Iran and China are still showing interest), which puts pressure on prices. The pace of sales is even lower in the segments for wheat and barley; relevant deals are extremely rare.

The Russian grain market has stalled as export quotas for wheat, barley and corn were fully covered on Monday, April 27. Moreover, this resulted is halted shipments of grain already delivered to ports and even loaded onto vessels. Traders did not have time to draw up customs declarations, and the implementation of already concluded contracts can be disrupted. However, some players doubt that large trading companies could take significant risks and start loading without necessary documents. Indicative export quotes for almost all crops have fallen noticeably. So, 12.5% protein wheat ​​is now quoted at $227-231/t FOB Black Sea ($2/t down) and $208-214/t FOB Azov Sea ($3.5/t down), while 11.5% protein grain is estimated at $220-228/t FOB ($4/t down) and $205-212/t FOB ($4.5/t down), respectively. Quotes for feed wheat have fallen to $214/t FOB Black Sea ($6/t down), while barley prices have risen to $180-182/t FOB ($3.5/t up). Corn now costs $156-159/t FOB ($2/t down).

In Kazakhstan, export quotes for wheat have grown by $10/t to $255-260/t DAP Saryagash (grade 3) and $245-250/t DAP Saryagash (grade 4) amid decreased May quotas allocated for these grains. Recall that April quotas amounted to 230,000 t, while May volume is only 200,000 t (120,600 t of grade 3 wheat and 79,400 t of grade 4 grain). Meanwhile, barley prices have dropped by $3/t to $178-181/t FOB Aktau amid lower demand from Iran.
Quotes for EU grain have also been mainly sliding down amid modest importers’ demand. Deals are signed infrequently and mainly within international tenders. Optimistic forecasts for new grain harvest are also putting pressure on prices. This week, wheat quotes have dropped to $218-222/t FOB Rouen ($9/t down), $223-228/t FOB German ports ($6.5/t down) and $220-225/t FOB Constanta ($5/t down). French barley prices have decreased to $175-184/t FOB Rouen/La Pallice ($5/t down), while quotes for German cargoes have risen to $184-185/t FOB Hamburg/Rostock ($4/t up).
During the period started July 1 and ended April 26, the EU countries exported almost 28 million t of wheat (vs. 17.2 million t in the same period of the previous season), 6.1 million t of barley (3.8 million t) and 4.3 million t of corn (2 million t). During the same period, imports of corn amounted to 17.1 million t (20.1 million t). Weekly exports (during April 20-26) of wheat barely exceeded 427,000 t (including 160,000 t from France, 98,700 t from Poland, 52,500 t from Lithuania and 48,400 t from Latvia), while sales of barley reached 40,300 t (33,000 t from Finland and 6,500 t from France); corn exports amounted to only 8,600 t (including 4,600 t from Romania).

Wheat prices have dropped in the USA despite worsening crop condition caused by frost and drought. So, quotes for HRW wheat have fallen by $6.5/t to $226-236/t FOB, while prices for SRW grain have declined by $9/t to $225-229/t FOB. High pace of corn planting puts pressure on relevant quotes ($9/t down to $137-146/t FOB Gulf of Mexico). Planting of this grain is 27% complete, which is a significantly higher level than last year (12%), as well as than the five-year average (20%). Demand for US soybeans is strengthening; relevant quotes are voiced at $328-338/t FOB Gulf of Mexico. This week, Mexico has bought more than 108,000 t of soybeans, while Chinese state importers have purchased at least 300,000 t of soybeans with shipments in August and September. Soybean planting has progressed from 2% to 8% (vs. 2% last year and a five-year average of 4%).
In April 17-23, the US traders sold 548,600 t of wheat (vs. 245,200 t in the previous week), 1 million t of soybeans (345,200 t) and 1.4 million t of corn (810,100 t). Taiwan and the Philippines purchased large volumes of wheat (150,000 t and 110,200 t, respectively). Mexico became the main importer of corn (544,700 t). China again took a leading position on the soybean market (618,100 t). At the same time, however, consumers cancelled previously purchased 81,200 t of wheat and 86,800 t of corn.

Quotes for Brazilian soybeans have inched up by $1/t to $325-334/t FOB Paranagua amid strong demand and growing supplies. The average supply pace is 826,000 t of soybeans per day, which confirms the expectations of record monthly exports. These products are manly shipped to China, though this importer has recently stepped up soybean purchases from the main competitor, the USA. Soybean harvesting is almost complete. Export prices for Brazilian corn with July shipments are voiced at $147-154/t FOB Paranagua. The pace of trade is not decreasing, while South Korea and Taiwan remain the main buyers.

Argentine farmers have suspended harvesting of soybeans ($318-328/t FOB Upriver) and corn ($4.5/t down to $140-149/t FOB Upriver) in the central region of the country due to heavy rains. Sunny weather during the month allowed to advance soybean harvesting to 68.2%, that of corn to 34% (condition of soybean crops worsened, though). At the same time, current weather conditions will have a positive impact on wheat planting for MY 2020-21 (scheduled to start in May); as a result, corresponding quotes have declined by $3.5/t to $238-244/t FOB Upriver (12% protein content) and by $1/t to $230-235/t FOB Upriver (11.5% protein). Note also that low water level in the Parana River is still a concern for market players, as it slows down supplies and pushes delivery costs up.

Prices for Australian wheat and barley have fallen sharply this week, reflecting decreased demand, as well as optimistic prospects for production of these crops. Thus, quotes for APW1 wheat have dropped by $12.5/t to $266-274/t FOB Albany and $268-278/t FOB Kwinana, while in the south of the country APW grain is offered at $265-275/t FOB Port Lincoln ($18.5/t down). Barley is quoted at $204-211/t FOB Albany/Kwinana ($1.5/t down and $2/t down, respectively) and at $206-213/t FOB Port Lincoln ($1/t down). Export volumes continue to decline. Producers sold out almost all stocks and start selling volumes from upcoming harvest.