Small-tonnage owners remain very bullish in the Black Sea and continue to push rates up. However, market fundamentals do not look so unambiguous these days. First, despite the progress of the grain season, the number of firm barley and wheat offers has stopped growing. Most offers are bss sub sale and have no chance to materialize precisely because of high freight rates. Fresh offers of corn are very few. Note that сoal and mineral traders also face the same problem. Secondly, despite the fact that many owners already have a schedule until the end of Aug, this week brokers note several vessels open spot, which was unimaginable a couple of weeks ago. However, any rate decline or even stabilization is still yet to be seen.
The shortage of vessels is still the main factor supporting the rate growth in the segment for 5-10k dwt fleet. Owners mainly get support from steel products, that are still actively exported from Russia, Ukraine and TBS.
At present:
Charterers are ready to pay $27-28/t for spot transportation of 5-6,000 t of steel products from Novorossiysk to the Marmara Sea and $26/t to Zonguldak (both equivalent to $6-6.5k daily bss RV);
Shipment of 10,000 t of steel products from Novorossiysk to the Marmara Sea costs $24/t;
Brokers suggest low-mid $40s/t for transportation of 10,000 t of steel products from Novorossiysk to Tunisia with a discharge rate of 1,500 sshex;
The deal for shipment of 10,000 t of square billets from Nikolayev to Burgas with 5,000x/4,000x l/d rates and July 25-27 laycans is discussed at $23/t, which is equivalent to about $13.5k daily bss RV;
Exporters are ready to pay around $70/t bss FILO for transportation of up to 10,000 t of hrc from Mariupol to Haifa bss 1/1. Another big charterer offers same rate for shipment of 7-8,000 t of rebars (sf 55`) from Odessa to Israel, but owners reluctantly consider discharge in Israel amid continuing vessel queues there;
Charterers offer low $40s/t for shipment of 5,000 t of steel profiles from TBS to Algeria with 1,500x/1,250x l/d rates and Aug laycans, while owners are seeking to get mid-$50s/t; a similar deal with mid-July laycans has been signed at $46/t;
Brokers suggest low $20s/t for transportation of 3,400 t of coils from Eregli to Constanta with 2,000 shex bends l/d rates and late July laycans, as well as $20-21/t for shipment of 5,000 t of steel profiles from Bartin to Constanta in early Aug;
Carrying 5-6,000 t of coils from Eregli to Aveiro with 2,000 shex bends l/d rates and July 28-30 laycans is estimated by ISM at low-mid $50s/t.
The situation on the grain transportation market is looking the most difficult now. Barley charterers generally accept today’s freight levels, while wheat and corn charterers increasingly have to postpone sales and shipments.
According to ISM sources:
Charterers are ready to pay $31/t for transportation of 10,000 t of barley (sf 53-54`) from Niko to Marmara and $32/t to Izmir given 3500x/2000x l/d rates, which is equivalent to $11.5-12k daily bss RV.
Other traders agreed to pay $31/t for transportation of 10,000 t of barley from Mariupol to the Marmara Sea;
Charterers offer $19/t for transportation of 10,000 t of wheat from Constanta to TBS, while ship owners are seeking to get high $20s/t;
Some traders offer $37/t for shipment of 7,000 t of barley from Kherson to Mersin with 1,500 sshex bends l/d rates and late July laycans, while owners are seeking to get about $40/t.
Traders offer $46.5/t for prompt shipment of 7-7,200 t of corn from Constanta to Seville with 4 ttl sshex l/d rates, which is equivalent to $6.5k daily bss RV or $9.5k daily bss dely EMed redel Seville for about 8-8.3k dwcc vessel (to meet Seville draft limitations)
As for smaller stems:
5-6,000 t of barley (sf 54-55`) are carried from Mariupol/Berdyansk to TBS at an overwhelmingly strong $32/t; meanwhile, other charterers offer at best $25/t for shipment of 5,000 t of barley (sf 52`) from Kherson to Marmara and $35/t to Mersin;
Most traders are not ready to pay more than $40/t for transportation of 6-7,000 t of wheat from Mariupol to Egypt, although there are those offering $42-43/t (owners generally want to get $45-46/t);
The deal for shipment of 5,000 t of wheat from Berdyansk to the Adriatic Sea is discussed at $47/t (exceeds $6k daily bss RV in equivalent);
Charterers are ready to pay $30/t for transportation of 5,000 t of wheat from Kherson to the Marmara Sea and $41/t to Mersin (equivalent to $6.5k daily and $6k daily bss RV, respectively);
6,000 t of wheat are carried from Nikolayev to Egypt at $42/t (equivalent to very strong $7.3k daily bss RV);
Traders offer $38-39/t for shipment of 5,000 t of barley (sf 56`) from Kherson to Mersin with l/d rates of 1,500 sshex bends and July 19-26 laycans (equivalent to mere $4.5k daily bss RV for almost 6k dwt vessel);
Owners are seeking to get at least $38/t for transportation of 6,000 t of wheat from Braila to EC Greece bss 1/1;
Charterers offer mere $31/t for shipment of 6,000 t of corn from Constanta to Syria;
Some agri traders offer $26/t for transportation of 5-5,500 t of bran (sf 55`) from Kherson to the Marmara Sea and $28/t to Izmir (equivalent to $4.8k daily bss RV);
The deal for transportation of 5,500 t of rapeseed meal (sf 63`) from Constanta to Morocco has been fixed at 65/t bss 1/1, which corresponds to very high $40s/t bss 7-7,500 t of heavy grains.
Rates for shipments of small cargo lots vary greatly:
So, charterers are ready to pay $32/t for shipment of 3,000 t of barley (sf 52`) from Nikolayev to Karasu and $33/t to the Marmara Sea (equivalent to rather strong $4.2-4.4k daily bss RV); meanwhile, other traders offer mere $25-26/t for transportation of a similar lot of bran (sf 54-55`) from Kherson to TBS and $27/t to the Marmara Sea (hardly reaches $3k daily bss RV in equivalent);
The deal for shipment of 3-4,000 t of barley from Nikolayev to the Marmara Sea is negotiated at $30/t;
4,000 t of barley have been fixed from Kherson to Egypt at high $40s/t.
As for other cargoes, fertilizers, minerals and coal are offered slightly less actively compared to last week:
The contract for transportation of 4.5-5,000 t of fertilizers from Varna to Nikolayev with laycan dates after July 22 has been signed at low-mid $30s/t;
Carrying 10,000 t of sulfur from the Kavkaz port road to Morocco is estimated by ISM at mid-high $40s/t;
Brokers suggest very high $20s/t for shipment of 7-10,000 t of coal from Taman to eastern Greece and low-mid $30s/t for transportation of 7-8,000 t of fertilizers from Tuapse to Iskenderun;
The deal for transportation of 3,000 t of salt from Eregli to Azov has been fixed at $16/t.
Charterers offer up to $95/t for shipment of 7,300 t of flour in bb (sf 58`) from TBS to Massawa given 1000 sshex l/d rates and 20-30 Jul laycans).